The Americans were not so pessimistic about finding a new job since a gloomy tension of the great stagnation
The Americans have the least confidence in finding a new job since 2013, which is.unemployment“After the Great Stagnation. According to the last August 2025 survey on consumer expectations From the New York Federal ReserveIn case of loss of work, the probability of a new job has fell to 44.9%. This is the lowest reading since the beginning of the series in June 2013. The decline was broad -based among age, education and income groups, but the New York Fed said, “But it was prominent for those with high school education,” he said.
The term “unemployed healing” comes before the great recession that began in 2008, but after the subprime mortgage balloon exploded, it took years for the economy to reclaim all the lost work in the accident. At the summit, unemployment exceeded 10% in late 2009 and fell below 8% until 2013 – more stagnant than previous recovers. Employers gradually restored the payrolls, but the employment deficit was so great that even in mid -2014, the economy had lost 8.7 million jobs he had lost since 2007. Many workers have reached high -year -olds and long -term unemployment history.
Budget and Policy Priorities Center, a non -partisan thinking tank, Explained the great stagnation It has created an unusual and long -term “output gap” between real and potential GDP, which emerged in excessive unemployment and inadequate employment. According to August 2018, the Congress Budget Office lasted until 2017. Economic and Budget View Estimates – and even then the economy did not continue before the accident on the potential GDP runway.
Even in 2017, millions of Americans who wanted jobs could not find them or not only find a part -time job. The labor market, which also ignores the courageous and less employed workers, reached “loose” record levels and a business share of the population has fell into the mid -1980s.
Why is it so gloom?
The survey of the New York FED, which has a survey of a rotating national panel consisting of approximately 1,300 household presidents, follows inflation, price, labor market and financial emotions. Other findings were more moderate than pessimism in future unemployment.
Earnings growth expectations have been below 12 months average since 2021 and under a long -term range. The average probability of unemployment remained above the annual average. While the fears of loss of jobs progressed up to 14.5%above average, the probability of a voluntary job fell to 18.9%below the average.
More participants said that they felt worse than last year and that a smaller share has reported a better financial situation and expectations are more polarized for the future. A larger share of households is waiting for a worse financial situation, while a larger household share awaits a better financial situation a year later. Perhaps in another sign of polarization, an important percentage (38.9%) expected the increase in stock prices next year.
To be sure, the economy is in a much better place than in 2013 this year. The last eight years of Trump and Biden’s economies Although it is a wave of inflation that has been similar to anything that has been seen since the 1970s and the 80s “Inflation Mountain”. Unlike the unemployed recovery of the 2010s, the US economy has recovered every job lost in the unprecedented wave of disappeared. Quite a few yearsAnd then he performed significantly better than other economies around the world.
The apocalypse and gloom among consumers are probably related to the low recruitment tendency that becomes more and more prominent than the revisions made by the Office of Labor Statistics. The emergence of AI and its impact on the labor market is also warmly discussed, but some studies have shown that this has changed some entry -level recruitment.
Bill Adams, the chief economist of the Commerica Bank, revealed an economy with Bls’s annual revisions with “less momentum than previously understood”. Luck. Adams is believed to have grew up at 168,000 new jobs per month per previous data and grew at 75,000 per month in 2025, but this was reduced to 106,000 and 44,000 respectively.
“There was a major downward revision in employment in the information industry, Adam said Adams. “Revised data clearly shows that AI has automated technology.”
